Four economists worth listening to...and one you MUST hear

While I tweet and blog from events I usually don't re-publish the subsequent content. The Financial Standard Chief Economist's breakfast (see Kaitlin Walsh's summary in the post below) is worth making an exception for.

If you're looking for a little light economic-style entertainment I can highly recommend Tim Harcourt's presentation.
For a global view check out the presentation by Principal Global Investors' Bob Baur. Bob is a regular visitor to Australia, and as we've found (PGI are a client), in great demand from media outlets keen to hear his particular take on the global economy and what that might mean for Australia. It helps that he has a better-than-usual set of economic jokes. And no, I'm not referring to PIIGS, BRICs, houses made of straw or the big bad wolf!
Finally, Saul Eslake, on productivity, blew me away. Breathless as that sounds, the data he presented was a wake-up call to Australian employers, the education sector and government. OK, I'm late catching on - Saul and others have been talking productivity for some time. If you're not familiar with the subject it's very worth a quick look at some of his slides. The implications are serious for Australia's future.
Richard Gibbs (Maquarie Group) and Clifford Bennett (White Crane Group) were also good value.

Only got time for one? Definately Saul Eslake.

A glimmer of light for 2012? Report from the Financial Standard Chief Economists Forum

Playing to a packed house of 800-plus financial bods were the five panel members addressing this year’s Financial Standard Chief Economists Forum at the Westin Hotel in Sydney this morning.

As everybody’s favourite economist, Master of Ceremonies Don Stammer, pointed out in his introductory remarks, macro-economic forces are playing an arguably unprecedented role in the shaping of world financial markets – which could explain the record attendance at this year’s event.

Five snappy presentations provided audience members with a range of opinions about cause, effect and, most importantly, future direction of the world economy in 2012, along with some unexpected laughs.

Slow growth to continue

First off was Richard Gibbs, Macquarie Group Chief Economist, who painted a contextual picture of market performance that broadly heralded a continuation of the relative gloom that has dominated the world landscape. He pointed to dreary Aussie (and other) equities performance, strong bond performance and the likelihood of more of the same if the less-than-rosy conditions that generally follow an inverted yield curve come about. Accordingly, his general forecasts fall in line with the most recent from the IMF and others of slower-than-previously-predicted world and local growth.

Throw away the Prozac

Then in bounced Bob Baur, Global Chief Economist from Principal Global Investors, who with irrepressible energy posed the question: will investors need to continue their Prozac in 2012 – or can they begin to wean themselves off it? Focusing on the US economy, Bob was decidedly more bullish in his reading of the outlook. He points, among other things, to increases in US manufacturing, productivity and a gradual upturn in employment as signalling a definite recovery – no double dip – in the US – with corresponding flow-on benefits to other world economies.

Hello world …

Speaker three was the peripatetic Tim Harcourt, Chief Economist of Australian Global Economics, Australian School of Business UNSW. A.k.a The Airport Economist, he took us on a whirlwind continent-by-continent tour (complete with slideshow – gosh that man works hard) in which he summarised regional economic conditions and likely outcomes from their interplay. Again, he took a more bullish global view, highlighting the burgeoning of consumption in emerging markets and the continuing importance of China and India to Australia’s own prospects. Along with the other presenters, he was at pains to point out that despite the scare- talk of China’s ‘cooling off’ and its potential effect on our own - and other - economies, some perspective is required. To paraphrase Bob Baur, China’s growth is merely moving from white hot, to hot – tales of its demise are decidedly exaggerated.

An overdue rebalancing

Next up was Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist from the White Crane Group, who took a truly macro view in which, once again, there was more than a grain of optimism. His view was that the time is well past due to forget the models and preconceptions of the past. Instead, global economic movements such as the decline of first world economies in general and the US dollar in particular are signs of the inevitable long term rebalancing of markets in the face of dramatically changed world conditions. Under this view, emerging markets are in fact ‘emerged’ and need to assume a new more central position in global economic reckoning. He also pointed out that it would take only a few pleasant surprises – for example, an uptick in US performance and the Eurozone managing to scrape through its debt issues – for the de rigueur doom and gloom to be replaced by something a little more gangbusters.

The ‘P’ word

To wrap up, stalwart Saul Eslake, Chief Economist from Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Australia, took us through some more contextual facts and figures to highlight some more disturbing trends already alluded to by a number of the other speakers. It seems that these are likely to occupy more and more of the upcoming national economic debate and it may be well past time. Specifically, he flagged plummeting productivity as a key structural issue facing first world countries in general and Australia in particular. His figures revealed not only that ours is at an all- time low compared to that of the US; he also busted the myth that such drop-offs in productivity are related to the nature of our resource-heavy economy and the lengthy lag times, effects of high commodity prices on measures (volume v. value)  and so on. Along with a number of the other panellists, he sounded a warning that this country needs to make intelligent use of the resources boom to ensure it provides long term benefits across the whole of the economy or risk a crushing fall when it eventually – and it’s not an if, but a when – comes to an end.

Onward and upward?

The Q&A session that followed included  some veiled debate and (potentially lively) discussion about productivity and debt; the political will or lack thereof to address both; the issue of the equitable distribution of the proceeds of increased productivity, and the virtues or otherwise of a regulated versus a deregulated labour market (Tim Harcourt pointing out that real wages in the US have not increased since the early 1990s and the divide between the haves and have-nots continues to yawn …) But that’s another story for another day. 

What to watch in 2012? General consensus was that key indicators include productivity, purchasing, China GDP and employment. Falls in any of the above may lead to a downward revision of world prospects for the year ahead. So fingers crossed, everyone.


Guest blogger, Kaitlin Walsh, is BlueChip Communication's Director of Media and Content

Do you have permission to lead?

CEOs, and most of us, have to earn our permission to lead.

While as leaders we want people 'in behind us', or following, the challenge is how to truly engage people so they want to follow the direction we set.  

How to choose the right direction to start with? How to consult or adapt our vision to one that our teams find compelling? Then how to build an unswerving committment among the team to the vision, mission, strategy and values?

Australians are not natural followers. We like to think that in fact we do think for ourselves.

We want our leaders to stand for something, be worthy of following and take us somewhere worth going. And yet many leaders - many of us - do not do justice by our colleagues, clients and staff by communicating those things well.

We struggle, overloaded, to get through our meetings, priorities and business plans. We don't stop often enough to reflect on whether what we are communicating is going to help us reach our goals - or take us and those who rely on us further away from them.

This quarter BlueChip has focused on leadership communication. To us, the golden rules are these:

- be visibly committed;
- be contextually aware;
- be clear and consistent: in personal brand and leadership style.

At a recent BlueChip CEO Breakfast, a straw poll of the industry heads present suggested leaders in financial services understand how important it is to lead through good communication - and yet finding time to invest in their own communication ability is hard.

It's one of those 'important but not urgent' jobs.

But leave it too long and it will be both urgent and important.

What can each of us do to lead better through our communication?

Invest in it. Make time, get a coach, go to training.

Plan. Actually think through the role communication can play - and make sure it does.

Practice. Get feedback. Improve. And persist. 

This blog post is taken from the most recent edition of PRognosis, the quarterly BlueChip PR thought piece. Last edition was dedicated to leadership communication.To subscribe, simply drop us an email.

Why I can't do what you want if you can't explain it well enough...internal communication

Now I may not have started out as a guru at explaining myself to others. Just ask my team.


But what I do know a little about is explaining (on the large scale) strategy to staff - in financial services but also other industries. 


What does that mean, exactly? The bit about "explaining strategy to staff"?


It means this... what the context is, where the company aims to be in that picture, how we're going to get there (together)...and...drum roll...what your part is in that bigger game plan.


But here's the trick. And listen up leaders because most of you get this wrong. Consistently. I say that with due humility because I get it wrong too.


The "trick" is this:


1. Get clear on the actual strategy
2. Get clear on the context (outside and inside including what your team are thinking, feeling and experiencing right now)
3. Get a sense of what needs to be done to deliver on strategy then (this is really important) 
4. ASK the top team (maybe up to 10% or more of your team) how to do it...and listen to what they say - that's the operating plan! And the messages.
5. Finally, tell everyone. Again, and again, and again, and again and again...until they start to mock you.


There are many other, longer, ways of explaining these top five essential actions in making strategy relevant to teams - and whole organisations.


But after more than a decade and a half inside, and outside (advising), large and small financial services companies (and some others) on internal communication, I can offer you the short version.


Of course the real test is my own business, BlueChip Communication. In recent years I've worked with a mentor who is not a communication expert, at least in the "corporate communication" sense. And yet what he said about communicating strategy is absolutely right. I use this wisdom everyday at BlueChip. 


Paraphrased, it's the summary version of how to make strategy real. 


"Define your strategy in five or six key sentences. Then repeat them. All the time, to everyone."


Has it worked? Well ask one of our people next time you see them...

#QantasLuxury = social media stand up

Wow. Just last week a group of senior corporate affairs people were talking about the interaction between traditional and online media.


You know the rub - social media can be where an issue starts and then traditional media grab it and it's away. It moves so fast you either can't respond, are ill-equipped to do so or management just don't 'get' the right way to deal with it. And before you know it, splat. The brand, online and off, has a big mess to clean up.


Usually however it's not kicked off, as one tweet described, by a management own-goal. 


Today here's a great example, courtesy of Qantas. We've been following the twiiter storm that came after Qantas announced this competition. 


What followed was painful to watch. The twitterverse, as it can, turned nasty. 


It was almost like watching drunk, bored uni students sit around seeing who can make the wittiest, nastiest wise-crack at each others' expense. 


Funny yes, pleasant no.


So from twitter announcement by @QantasAirways this morning to twitter backlash, broader social crankiness, then mainstream news. ABC News online and the SMH were right there, along with others.


Along the way we got the YouTube video, and, from @QantasAirways, this tweet with a picture of "Australia's most famous pyjamas".

 Bottom line for financial services social media? Three things:

1. Understand how your audience sees you NOW. Are they already hugely annoyed? Then wait. Save your social whatever for another day...and think about polling, listening in to customer calls, or simply checking the idea with someone on the front line.
2. Have a contingency plan. Know what it looks like if it does (unlikely I know) go to custard. Let's say you do think it's a great time to launch a new competition to win a low value prize pack...stop for a minute and scenario plan what might go wrong. It's communication risk management 101.
3. Have senior folk (sign off) on call, and already socially aware so that under pressure they make the right call, or back yours.


Qantas may well have done all this...and still had a less than ideal day. 


Hopefully they also have a sense of humour. Twitter as stand up is hilarious. Perhaps not so when it's your own brand.

Picture a perfect client: top 5 secrets to being one

Much like a perfect summer day in the Cotswolds, a 'perfect' client is delightful.

Mythical also. Much like the perfect PR firm or consultant. 

If, like me, you believe perfection is found in moments, not perpetuity, then perhaps you'll sympathise with the idea that perfection is the journey, and not a fixed end point. 

While this landscape looks good at a distance, the picture was taken with an iPhone (the dark shadow top right is from my case) from a moving train. It's not perfect. But stand back and it looks pretty good.

Standing back from the client relationships (financial services PR firm) BlueChip values the most and we find some wonderful pictures.

Five features of the 'perfect' client

A perfect client, or a perfect client relationship, features at least five (pretty universal) factors:

1. A vision
2. Clear expectations and communication
3. Frank and fearless feedback - positive and sometimes "notso"
4. Business results - commercial outcomes on both sides
5. Teamwork

But dig deeper, to look for a bit more gritty reality, and the picture gets a bit grainy. Not out of focus, but less perfect. More real.

The cold hard truth of 'perfect' clients, 'perfect' relationships, or 'perfect' consultants is that it's BS.

There's no such thing.

There are a few less glamorous inputs...so here's my take on reaching near perfection and staying there as a client (or PR consultant)

Five secrets to near perfection as a client

1. Work out what you really want...
2. And why it matters...then share it generously & relentlessly with your PR firm
3. Tell them what you really think, kindly
4. Help them deliver for you and still make an appropriate profit (they'll love you for it)
5. Treat them with respect...like a dear and smart friend who wants the best for you.

Because they probably do. Of course if they don't, they're the wrong PR firm.

But if they do, which you already know (it either oozes out of them or it doesn't), and you do the less glamorous but more important stuff above, they'll open a vein for you. Almost literally.

And suddenly perfection looks too easy. The relationship is warm, the results are exceptional and everyone is having a good time.

The picture is damn near perfect.

Qantas v Unions: Pot or Kettle blacker?

Regardless of the outcome, reputations will be damaged in the boxing match featuring "Qantas vs the unions".

It remains to be seen whether the pot, or kettle, emerges with their name more blackened.

Both the unions and Qantas are likely to suffer some tarnish to their reputation given actions by both mean they are failing to deliver on basic service, let alone the brand promise.

I'm not an aviation or union expert, but I'm fascinated by the public aspect of the battle. Here are some observations of how it's playing out and how the PR is being handled.

Qantas

Qantas is actually pretty good at PR. They've always seemed to be great at getting their message out - quickly, cleanly and with great execution discipline, and in keeping with community standards.

Which makes it all the more interesting (what really happened behind the scenes?) that today's shut down has drawn a proper bollocking from Government. Normally such a bold and big move would have been discussed with government, and the subject of much behind the scenes consultation - all designed to avoid exactly the reaction they got today.

Now that the Board and CEO have gone with what one online forum thread describes as "the nuclear option" it will be interesting to see how good they are at crisis communication while on the offensive. And whether they have a PR adviser or firm on board, or internal folk, with the ability to steer through this with the least damage.

Because damage there will be...more on that later.

Qantas has just moved from "victim" to "aggressor" in the public psyche - not only because they have "gone nuclear" but importantly because they've just stopped serving customers. When your customers are families trying to reunite, people with medical issues and travelling tweeters, what comes next will fill PR, crisis management and stakeholder theory text books for some time to come.

And I say "crisis communication" when talking about Qantas because it is, by definition, the communication needed (and often not employed properly) when the issues threaten the very continuity, or fundamental value and sustainability, of the organisation.

The Unions

The union movement is also great at PR - not necessarily the kissing babies style community PR but that great sport of intensely fought campaign style media designed to win both the war and the battle.

When industrial action stops flights it's harder for the unions to stay on the right side of public opinion.

Now, Qantas have handed the three unions representing baggage handlers, catering staff, engineers and long haul pilots, a huge advantage - the big group of people (passengers) who are now as cranky with Qantas as the unions are.

Its an advantage unlikely to be wasted if tonight's Fair Work Australia hearing doesn't produce at least a ceasefire to enable all parties to cool down - and flight service to resume.

News media

The Sydney Morning Herald is running a good mash-up style news feed here, with webcam from Qantas's currently empty check-in areas, regular news updates, images and comments from passengers via twitter and email.

The ABC's coverage is similar but with far greater weight to images and cool inclusions like twitter sentiment (62% negative on Alan Joyce when I saw it) through storify.

Analyst Tom Ballantyne says it was Qantas's only real option. Maybe so. But possibly it could have been executed with better behind-the-scenes stakeholder engagement - and they'd be coping less of a public blackening now.

Tony Abbott's line that it's a national repuation issue was echoed by commentator Greg Sheridan. Sadly, thanks to the newly installed paywall around The Australian's content you'll have to pay to read the full piece.

Online reputation management

It would appear the Qantas team is somewhat under resourced, with tweets outbound but, as one SMH reader notes, no staffers responding to stranded passengers via social media.

Not a great triumph for brand management online. All very well to offer smart-alec comments from the side line but if I were working with Qantas on this I'd have strongly suggested a social media desk staffed by (in this order of preference) management or customer service people who are social media savvy, their PR firm or an outsourced call centre used to dealing with investors or upscale customers - and yes they do exist and can be deployed quickly. It's really not that different to the media desk and elevated customer inbound call capacity that's a standard part of every crisis management team.

BlueChip has a crisis management desk wired and ready to go...it seats a dozen people in close (but not too close) proximity so that communication can be exchanged quickly, answers developed and signed off on the fly and the team acts as one. Why is Qantas's equivalent not given permission to go further than one-way - taking passengers at least on the return journey in social media?

All those sympathetic outbound passenger tweets by Qantas (had they happened) would have helped tip Alan Joyce's twitter sentiment (and more importantly Qantas's) back into the green.

I'm guessing that having bet the farm on this move Alan Joyce was more worried about other alligators in the swamp than his own customers.

And yet neglected, those cranky flyers could yet pay Qantas back horribly for failing to provide swift, helpful responses in the right medium ie the one customers are using to vent, ask for help or simply share their latest news.

That's the whole point of the democratisation of influence we've seen with the rise and rise of social media.

Too few senior people (Boards and leadership teams) in financial services don't yet appreciate just how far reaching the evolution of online communication is - and that yes, it does reach into the boardrooms and mahogany rows (or well-lit hot desks) of those formally in charge.

At least Qantas is tweeting...even if its only one way.

It's too early to call it for either party in terms of media and public sentiment.

If I had to guess I'd say media will call it as the online sentiment does, at least short term.

Events at Fair Work Australia may yet see Qantas hailed as a reluctant hero - fighting back only to secure their survival.

Either way it's a public example of how PR wars are now fought, and won or lost.

Financial services Boards, CEOs and senior management could learn a lot by watching it unfold online.